4Q Indicators Show Slow Early Recovery

Feb 22nd, 2010 | By Dawn Rivers Baker | Category: Economy

Last week, the SBA Office of Advocacy released the latest in its series of Quarterly Indicators briefs, this time reporting on the fourth quarter of 2009. So, now, I get to throw a bunch of numbers at you, the good news being that there will not be a quiz when I’m done. The Commerce Department announced earlier this month that its advance estimate of fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was a white hot 5.7%, although that will probably be revised downward in subsequent reports. Much of the GDP growth recorded during the fourth quarter stemmed from businesses finally replacing inventories, a spike in exports and a slowing in the growth of imports, and slight growth (a scant 2%) in personal consumption. The employment picture remained weak, with unemployment at 10% at the end of the year. The economy lost a net 310,000 jobs during the quarter; in total, the U.S. economy shed 4.8 million jobs in 2009.

By the end of the year, everybody was also starting to feel better about the economy. Consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, was higher for the month of December (72.5) than the overall average for the year (66.3). Small business owner optimism, as measured by the National Federation of Independent Business, was down slightly for the quarter (-0.8) and up in December 2009 by 2.8 points over the December 2008 measure. Business spending and hiring plans remain tentative. There was some slight easing in the small business credit market. Banks report weak demand, while small business owners continue to say they can’t get loans. The SBA lending picture has markedly improved over last year: 7(a) loans were up by more than $300 million, while 504 dollar volume had improved by $99 million in December 2009, compared to December 2008.

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