At the risk of upsetting some people terribly, it sometimes seems difficult to tell one politician from another. It would be difficult to imagine two members of that calling who could be more different from each other than George W. Bush and Barack H. Obama. But President Bush, touting the efficacy of his economic policies in early 2007 is not much different from President Obama touting the efficacy of his economic policies in early 2009. In both cases, the crowing was premature. That said, there are enough encouraging signs in the economic data coming down the pike to justify an “I told you so” from the White House if, as they anticipate, the economy returns to positive growth by the third quarter of this year. For starters, the economy is still shedding jobs but the pace of those job losses appears to have slowed.

Instead of losing between 500,000 and 700,000 jobs, as had been the case every month so far this year, the economy “only” lost 345,000 jobs in May. The Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) increased sharply for the second month in a row in May, up 1.2% following an increase in April of 1.1%. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, which is one of a few truly relevant pieces of economic data for microbusiness owners, has mirrored the behavior of the LEI, rising by 14.1 points in May, up from April’s measure of 40.8 to 54.9. The NFIB’s Index of Small Business Optimism is also up, although still weak by historical standards, climbing 2.1 points in May. And the the National Association of Credit Management has taken a look at their Credit Manager’s Index and declared the recession to have ended in February or March. Most experts expect resumed positive GDP growth in the third quarter.