Glimmers of Hope in the Economic Doldrums
Feb 23rd, 2009 | By Dawn R. Rivers | Category: EconomyEarlier this month, the SBA Office of Advocacy released the latest in its regular series of quarterly small business indicators, covering the fourth quarter of 2008, and it was an attractive report if you happen to be fond of the color red. There was relatively little good news to be teased out of all the red ink. Overall employment declined, of course, but the education and health services industry sector actually added jobs. Productivity was up and prices were down for both producers and consumers. Oil and gas prices, in particular, fell, which eased quite a lot of pain. Consumption was down but the personal savings rate more than doubled.
Turning to January’s data, consumer confidence remains in the cellar but The Conference Board’s measure of economic indicators offered a ray of sunshine. While the coincident indicators, which measure current conditions, and the lagging indicators remain in decline, the leading indicators rose for the second month in a row. Conference Board Economist Ken Goldstein predicts an easing of economic pain, with a period of anemic growth to come in the second half of 2009. Of much more importance is the fact that, if a return to any sort of growth is on the cards, it is probable that among the earliest beneficiaries will be the nation’s microbusinesses. If Mr. Goldstein’s prediction turns out to be accurate, we can expect microbusiness employers to get back to hiring later this year. Their job creation numbers may not be enough to make up for continued losses among other firm size classes, but the slight improvement in the employment situation will be a welcome signal that better times are on the way.
